Research, Talks and other Presentations
My current resume.
My Latest Global Economics Column on Substack
Global Economics: https://globalecon.substack.com/
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Academic Research
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Working Papers
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"Populist Walking Sticks: Redefining Growth Stories in Populist Economies" [With Ege Asutay and Andreas Freytag] 2024 Draft to be presented at 2025 Public Choice Society Meetings
Abstract: Populist policies are known to often generate a walking stick pattern of high output growth and low inflation followed by low growth and high inflation. Traditionally, researchers have viewed this as resulting primarily from populist monetary and fiscal policies that ignore intertemporal budget constraints. We show that this same walking stick pattern can also be driven by real-sector
reallocative policies that are a direct manifestation of populist ideology.
Using an open economy, monetary Romer (1990) endogenous growth model, we show that the real re-allocation of workers away from jobs perceived as “elite” – here modelled as researchers – to manufacturing industries generates an initial output boom but lowers productivity growth, causing a subsequent decline. Basic monetary policy that respects intertemporal budget constraints in this
environment still generates all the classic, Dornbusch & Edwards (1990), populist patterns: boom-bust output cycles, low-high inflation, and trade deficits followed by capital flow reversals.
We use the model along with recent political economy research such as Funke et al. (2023) as well as recent political science contributions to organize the data as well as test its implications using Vector Autoregressions (VAR) on a sample of populist and non-populist governments from the early 20th Century until today. Our empirical results support that the model and it’s real-policy implications
provide useful insights for understanding populism and its macroeconomic effects.
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"Adding Outside Money to Sidrauskian Models: Mechanisms Matter", 2023 Draft. Currently under revision.
Abstract: The Sidrauski (1967) model in much monetary research even today. His mechanism to add outside money to the model leads to specific conclusions that focus on the role of money but not on the role of monetary policy in economies. This paper focuses on the “monetary mechanisms” possible in Sidrauski’s original model. It explores three possible mechanisms in Sidrauski-models: (1)via net fiscal transfers, (2) via commodity exchanges, and (3) via capital exchanges. The results show that his original formulation was both unrealistic and infeasible for the conduct of monetary policy, especially from a central bank balance sheet perspective. Adding money instead through government purchases of real-valued goods or capital leads to a natural role for the balance sheet of the central bank helping to make sense of traditional monetary regimes and provide insights to modern regimes. -
"150 Years of Inflation: An FTPL Perspective". 2024 Draft. [With Jack French and Daniel Hogan]
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​Published Research
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"Exploring What Stock Markets Tell Us About GDP In Theory and Practice" [With Jack French]. Research in Economics, September 25, 2021. ​
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"Populism-What Next? A First Look at Populist Walking-Stick Economies." [With Andreas Freytag and Miriam Kautz], CESifo Working Paper No. 7914., CESifo, Munich, 2019. Latest version (2021) here.
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“Remittances, Inflation and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies” [With Javier A. Reyes and Claude Lopez]. The World Economy 36(4): 487-507, 2013
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“Inflation Targeting or Fear of Floating in Disguise: A Broader Perspective” [With Javier A. Reyes]. Journal of Macroeconomics 30(1), pp. 308 - 326, 2008.
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“International Reserve Holdings: Interest Rates Matter!” [With Javier A. Reyes]. Applied Economic Letters, pp. 1 – 6, 2008.
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“Rethinking Hub versus Point-to-Point Competition: A Simple Circular Airline Model.” Journal of Business and Economic Studies. Vol. 13, Number 1, (2007): 73-87.
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“Inflation Targeting or Fear of Floating in Disguise: The Case of Mexico.” [With Javier A. Reyes]. International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 9, Issue 1, (2004): 49-69.
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“The Intertwinement of Legal and Economic Systems in Transition,” Rechtstheorie, 33 (2002): 299-317
Book Chapters:
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“Inflation Targeting and Trade Deficits: Thoughts for the Visegrad Four.” [With Javier A. Reyes], in Inflation: Roles, Targeting, and Dynamics, edited D.T. Bentley and E.P. Nelson, Chapter 2 pp. 1 – 24.
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Non-Academic Writing​
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"Looking Past the COVID-19 Economic Crisis" (PDF), CBA Quarterly, The Official Magazine of the Connecticut Bankers Association, Third Quarter 2020, page 22.
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Lectures & Speeches
(I'm trying to do better writing up and posting my talks. Please bear with me.)
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Economic/Professional
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For my latest articles, find me at Global Economics: https://globalecon.substack.com/
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"Substantial inflation is (still) always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." February 23, 2022 (PDF)
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"Foundations of Free Societies and Free Economies", invited lecture given for the Young Hungarian Leadership Program (YHLP) participants, Washington, DC, Oct 30, 2021. Currently in handwritten form in two parts here.
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"The Economy in 2021 and Beyond"(PPT slides), invited lecture for the Connecticut Banker's Association, 2021 Director & Senior Officer Symposium, May 16, 2021.
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"Global Economic Outlook Covid, the World and Implications for CT" (PPT slides), keynote address for the Connecticut Banker's Association, 2020 Director & Senior Officer Symposium, June 1, 2020.
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"Navigating the trade wars", keynote address for CBIA's conference on "The Connecticut Economy 2019", Hartford Marriott Downtown, Hartford, CT, Sep, 6, 2019.
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TV and Written Interviews
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(TV/video) Effects of US Russian Oil Ban, interview on Connecticut's WFSB Eyewitness News 3. March, 8, 2022. https://www.wfsb.com/video/2022/03/08/interview-us-bans-russian-oil/
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WalletHub Interview on "March 2022 Fed Rate Hikes", published March 8, 2022, https://wallethub.com/edu/sa/fed-rate-hike-survey/48053#expert=Christopher_Ball
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Honorary Hungarian Consul
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"The Tangible and Intangible Threats to Freedom" (PDF), talk given for the 1956 Anniversary at the Hungarian House in Wallingford, CT. October 25, 2021
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My Remarks on the 61st Anniversary of the Hungarian 1956 Revolution and Freedom Fight (October 22, 2017 in Wallingford, CT, USA)
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